Which Australian Lottery Has the Best Odds? A Straight Comparison

There are five main lottery games available across Australia: Saturday Lotto, Powerball, Oz Lotto, Weekday Windfall, and Set for Life. Each has a different odds structure, ticket price, prize format, and draw frequency. The "best" game depends entirely on what you are optimising for.

The comparison table

Ticket prices vary slightly and can change. Check current pricing with the operator. As of early 2024, all games were available for approximately $1.35 per game (standard entry), with Set for Life typically priced slightly higher per game due to its daily draw structure.

Weekday Windfall: best odds, no rollover

This makes Weekday Windfall the game with the most frequent Division 1 wins: if the odds are the same as Saturday Lotto but the prize does not accumulate, winners appear more often. The trade-off is that the prize is also smaller. You are never going to win $50 million from Weekday Windfall.

For players who think of the lottery primarily as a moderate life-change event (a paid-off mortgage rather than a yacht and a jet), Weekday Windfall's fixed $1 million prize and better-than-Powerball odds make it a rational choice. Drawing three times a week adds frequency to the proposition.

Saturday Lotto: good odds, genuine jackpots

Saturday Lotto offers the same Division 1 odds as Weekday Windfall but with a jackpot that grows when Division 1 is not won. Starting jackpots are typically $4 million and can grow into the tens of millions over multiple rollovers. The game has been running in Australia for decades and is the most widely played in terms of weekly participation.

The combination of competitive odds and a growing jackpot makes Saturday Lotto the best value among the rollover games for most jackpot levels. EV per ticket is reasonable compared to Powerball unless the Powerball jackpot is very large.

Oz Lotto: mid-range odds, reasonable prizes

Oz Lotto sits in the middle of the field. Division 1 odds of 1 in 45.4 million are worse than Saturday Lotto but much better than Powerball. The starting jackpot of $2 million is modest, but it rolls over and has reached $100 million in high-rollover draws.

Tuesday draws give Oz Lotto its own draw day, which some players find convenient. The game is not the best value at minimum jackpot levels, but becomes more interesting as it rolls over.

Set for Life: different value proposition

Set for Life does not fit cleanly into the jackpot comparison because the prize is structured differently. Division 1 pays $20,000 per month for 20 years, totalling $4.8 million over the payment period. The odds of 1 in 38.6 million are worse than Saturday Lotto but better than Powerball.

Set for Life draws every day, giving 365 chances per year at Division 1. The income structure suits players who would prefer a reliable monthly amount over a large lump sum that requires immediate management. The $4.8 million total is a smaller headline number than Powerball jackpots, but the manageable payout structure is a genuine advantage for some winners.

One important distinction: because Set for Life pays out monthly rather than immediately, it is less affected by the Centrelink asset test initially. Each monthly payment becomes an asset when received, rather than the full prize being assessed at once.

Powerball: worst odds, biggest prizes

Powerball's Division 1 odds of 1 in 134,490,400 are the worst of any Australian game. The two-barrel draw structure (7 main numbers from 1-35, plus the Powerball from 1-20) is what makes the odds so long. Matching both is far harder than matching a single draw.

The reward for those difficult odds is that jackpots can grow to levels no other Australian game reaches. Draws at $80 million, $100 million, $150 million, and beyond have occurred. At these jackpot sizes, Powerball EV approaches that of other games, and for players who specifically want the chance at a nine-figure prize, it is the only option.

Which game should you play?

If your goal is the highest probability of winning Division 1: Weekday Windfall or Saturday Lotto.

If your goal is the largest possible prize: Powerball, particularly when the jackpot is above $80 million.

If your goal is a life-changing income stream rather than a lump sum: Set for Life.

If your goal is the best expected value per dollar at current jackpot levels: use the EV calculator tool on this site, which fetches live jackpot data and calculates EV for each game dynamically.